What we can predict about PS4 from PlayStation's history

There's a precedent for this

Several precedents, actually. So why waste our time having stabs at guessing its future based on the present when history is full of pointers to suggest exactly what PlayStation 4s life will be like?

PS4 will cost less than $599

PlayStation and PS2 both launched at $299. Both turned out to be among the most successful consoles ever seen, combining the appeal of state-of-the-art technology with a just-about-affordable-if-you-really-want-it price point. By comparison, PS3 launched at $599 and everyone laughed. It was necessary due to the expensive development of Cell, but PS4 uses PC components, making it more likely to fall back in line.

PS4 will have hardware revisions in 2016 and 2019

After PlayStation's surprise hardware revision in the shape of the PSone, PS2 got its first Slim model after 4 years. Since 2004, every subsequent hardware revision has come three years after the previous. It's like clockwork.

PS4's aesthetic finish won't be ultra-deluxe

If history has taught us anything, it's that original PS3 was the odd-one-out in many respects. It was the only Sony home console to feature a gloss finish, likely to help justify the premium price-tag.

PS4 will share some early releases with PS3

We already know that Watch Dogs is a cross-generational launch game but history can point to a few more examples. PS3 had new versions of Call of Duty 3 and Need For Speed Carbon because they could easily be prettied-up and sent out with a new price tag. Pretty much any major game that's in development now would logically be a good candidate for having all the sliders set to full and sent out as a next-gen game. The PC version of Tomb Raider is a likely candidate for that, with its hefty recommended specs sounding suspiciously next-gen-like.

PS4 will launch with 250GB and 500GB variants

How do we know this? PlayStation 3's bundled-in hard drive configurations have always come in pairs, ever since the initial 60GB and 20GB partnership on day one. As digital downloads become more commonplace, hard drive sizes have increased, with PS3 seeing higher-capacity SDKs brought in across the various territories worldwide almost every year, currently at 250GB and 500GB.

PS4 will be discontinued in 2025

PlayStation 2 launched in 2000 and was finally discontinued at the end of 2012. PSone before it was launched in 1994 and was discontinued in 2006. Thats twelve years apiece for shelf-life.

PS4 will sell over 100 million units

PSone sold 102.49 million units. PS2 sold 153.6m. PS3 has sold roughly 77 million units so far, with a potential five years left in its lifetime to clinch another 23m, which is certainly likely too.

What do you think?

That's the future as predicted by the past. But will it be accurate? Don't forget, the past also suggests that The US Air Force will buy a load of them to create a crazy supercomputer and it will be advertised by a talking duck. Might any of our carefully selected precedents actually mean nought in the current climate? Let us know in the comments.